The long held lead of Corentin Douguet and Axel Tréhin (SNSM) is melting away like snow on a hot day. Their lead over the Le Havre favourites Guillaume Pirouelle and Cedric Chateau (Seafrigo Sogestan) is down to 36 miles, that lead having been 378 miles last weekend.
That said these situations do always evolve over time and the last 1000 nautical miles could be a battle as the trades dissipate leaving the battle between south and north wide open.
These uncertain conditions are going to become seriously problematic for those lagging behind. While the first boats are expected to arrive in Fort-de-France between Monday and Tuesday, the TRANSAT CAFÉ L’OR could last another week for some.
It wasn't that long ago, just last Saturday, while Fort-de-France celebrated the heroes of the three other competing classes, SNSM Faites un don (the French lifeboat charity) held a lead of over 378 miles, 1800 miles from the finish, on the leader of the fleet that had headed south. But it was already known that the duo of Corentin Douguet and Axel Tréhin, leading seven other boats, wouldn't remain in such a comfortable position—a relative term for those who had just come through a particularly tough week in the North with three frontal passages.
MAKING YOUR CHOICE
"We'll have to use a crowbar to get through the high pressure systems," Axel Tréhin warned at the time. But did he imagine that the effort required to reach the trade winds would be so intense and that the progress, direct though it was, would be so slow?
"On ensemble models, 25% of the routings still showed the South winning before the start, which means that some models correctly predicted the risk of a route closing in at the top," explains Yann Château at Race Control today. For their part, the leaders in the South played their option all the way: "When they dove down south they didn't hold back," says Race Director Francis Le Goff. "We had to take advantage of the tail end of the front; that's where the gaps opened up within the fleet, not so much in the trade winds where the speeds are very close between the boats."
At the 1 p.m. update on Sunday the tables were turning, William Mathelin-Moreaux and Pietro Luciani (Les Invincibles) had just covered 307 miles in 24 hours, more than 100 miles faster than SNSM Faites un don. Ultimately, the fastest boat on the trade wind route was Seafrigo-Sogestran, skippered by Normans Guillaume Pirouelle and Cédric Château. As we go to press, they are only 35 miles behind SNSM Faites un don and could take the lead in the next twelve hours…
The last 1,000 miles of the race should significantly reshuffle the cards. A fairly deep low-pressure system will form next weekend south of Bermuda, causing a sharp shift in the trade winds and even bringing northwesterly winds to the Caribbean. In this scenario, the "right-hand side of the course" position of SNSM Faites un don (Donate to the French Sea Rescue Society) will be advantageous, as they won't have to tack, unlike the Southerners: "In all the routings we run, the Northern leaders finish on the podium or very close, with a significant degree of uncertainty since we're only six days away from the finish at best," confirms Yann Château. The final chapter of this TRANSAT CAFÉ L'OR promises to be as challenging as it is exciting, with an open North-South battle that could last until the very end.
LONG COFFEE
A long coffee, almost an Americano for some… From behind the computer screen, it might seem like a particularly long Coffee Route. This is in some ways true due to the Class40s' stopover in La Coruña. But with the numbers are not far off from recent editions. The leaders took more than 18 days in 2021 over a nearly equivalent distance and 21 days in 2022 on a course that doubled the distance to Cape Verde. "The other classes this time were very fast, and that's what suggests a slow race for the Class40s," observes Francis Le Goff.
Nevertheless, the race organizers are closely monitoring the stragglers who unfortunately won't be able to finish within the race time, even though the finish line closure has been postponed for the second time, now set for November 24th. To date, of the 35 competitors still in the race…
Source : TRANSAT CAFÉ L'OR Le Havre-Normandie
